Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Transmission in the United States Before Versus After Relaxation of Statewide Social Distancing Measures

BACKGROUND: Weeks after issuing social distancing orders to suppress severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and reduce growth in cases of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), all U.S. states and the District of Columbia partially or fully relaxed these measures. METHODS: We identified all statewide social distancing measures that were implemented and/or relaxed in the U.S. between March 10-July 15, 2020, triangulating data from state government and third-party sources. Using segmented linear regression, we estimated the extent to which relaxation of social distancing affected epidemic control, as indicated by the time-varying, state-specific effective reproduction number (Rt). RESULTS: In the eight weeks prior to relaxation, mean Rt declined by 0.012 units per day (95% CI, -0.013 to -0.012), and 46/51 jurisdictions achieved Rt < 1.0 by the date of relaxation. After relaxation of social distancing, Rt reversed course and began increasing by 0.007 units per day (95% CI, 0.006-0.007), reaching a mean Rt of 1.16 eight weeks later, with only 9/51 jurisdictions maintaining Rt <1.0. Parallel models showed similar reversals in the growth of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Indicators often used to motivate relaxation at the time of relaxation (e.g. test positivity rate <5%) predicted greater post-relaxation epidemic growth. CONCLUSIONS: We detected an immediate and significant reversal in SARS-CoV-2 epidemic suppression after relaxation of social distancing measures across the U.S. Premature relaxation of social distancing measures undermined the country's ability to control the disease burden associated with COVID-19

Densest Subgraph in Dynamic Graph Streams

In this paper, we consider the problem of approximating the densest subgraph in the dynamic graph stream model. In this model of computation, the input graph is defined by an arbitrary sequence of edge insertions and deletions and the goal is to analyze properties of the resulting graph given memory that is sub-linear in the size of the stream. We present a single-pass algorithm that returns a $(1+\epsilon)$ approximation of the maximum density with high probability; the algorithm uses O(\epsilon^{-2} n \polylog n) space, processes each stream update in \polylog (n) time, and uses \poly(n) post-processing time where $n$ is the number of nodes. The space used by our algorithm matches the lower bound of Bahmani et al.~(PVLDB 2012) up to a poly-logarithmic factor for constant $\epsilon$. The best existing results for this problem were established recently by Bhattacharya et al.~(STOC 2015). They presented a $(2+\epsilon)$ approximation algorithm using similar space and another algorithm that both processed each update and maintained a $(4+\epsilon)$ approximation of the current maximum density in \polylog (n) time per-update.Comment: To appear in MFCS 201

Linear-time list recovery of high-rate expander codes

We show that expander codes, when properly instantiated, are high-rate list recoverable codes with linear-time list recovery algorithms. List recoverable codes have been useful recently in constructing efficiently list-decodable codes, as well as explicit constructions of matrices for compressive sensing and group testing. Previous list recoverable codes with linear-time decoding algorithms have all had rate at most 1/2; in contrast, our codes can have rate $1 - \epsilon$ for any $\epsilon > 0$. We can plug our high-rate codes into a construction of Meir (2014) to obtain linear-time list recoverable codes of arbitrary rates, which approach the optimal trade-off between the number of non-trivial lists provided and the rate of the code. While list-recovery is interesting on its own, our primary motivation is applications to list-decoding. A slight strengthening of our result would implies linear-time and optimally list-decodable codes for all rates, and our work is a step in the direction of solving this important problem

High Resolution Image Reconstruction of Polymer Composite Materials Using Neural Networks

A neural network is an artificial intelligence technique inspired by a simplistic model of biological neurons and their connectivity. A neural network has the ability to learn an input-output function without a priori knowledge of the relationship between them. Typically a neural network consists of layers of neurons, whereby each neuron in a given layer is fully connected to neurons in adjacent layers. Figure 1 shows such an arrangement with three layers, called the input, hidden and output layers. The connection strengths between neurons, often referred to as weights, are modified by a training phase. The training phase used here utilizes an error back propagation algorithm [1]. During training the neural network is presented with input which propagates through the network producing a corresponding output. A comparison of the actual output with the desired or target output generates an error which is used to adjust the neural network’s weights according to an error gradient descent technique [2]. This procedure is repeated for many different input and desired output pairs allowing the neural network to learn the input-output function

A Type-2 Fuzzy Logic Based System for Augmented Reality Visualisation of Georeferenced Data

Planning of infrastructure's provision and maintenance tasks is commonly done in a planning office using paper maps and desktop applications. However, any infrastructure plan has to be verified on location before being submitted to the responsible authorities. This task is usually accomplished by taking paper maps to the field and annotating them on site, or in the best case, using two-dimensional (2D) maps on mobile devices. Augmented reality (AR) can provide enhanced experiences of real-world situations by overlaying key information and three-dimensional (3D) visualizations when needed, thus supporting decision-making processes. AR could support land surveyors and mobile planners with a graphical overlay of the planned changes, highlighting relevant information and assets in their field of view. This paper presents an AR application, which uses interval type-2 fuzzy logic mechanisms to visualise immersive 3D georeferenced data; supporting planning and designing of infrastructure by directly modifying data to incorporate required changes, without the need of any post-processing. Immersive visual feedback is provided via a head mounted display (HMD), enhancing user's 3D spatial perception of georeferenced data

Mechanical Stress Inference for Two Dimensional Cell Arrays

Many morphogenetic processes involve mechanical rearrangement of epithelial tissues that is driven by precisely regulated cytoskeletal forces and cell adhesion. The mechanical state of the cell and intercellular adhesion are not only the targets of regulation, but are themselves likely signals that coordinate developmental process. Yet, because it is difficult to directly measure mechanical stress {\it in vivo} on sub-cellular scale, little is understood about the role of mechanics of development. Here we present an alternative approach which takes advantage of the recent progress in live imaging of morphogenetic processes and uses computational analysis of high resolution images of epithelial tissues to infer relative magnitude of forces acting within and between cells. We model intracellular stress in terms of bulk pressure and interfacial tension, allowing these parameters to vary from cell to cell and from interface to interface. Assuming that epithelial cell layers are close to mechanical equilibrium, we use the observed geometry of the two dimensional cell array to infer interfacial tensions and intracellular pressures. Here we present the mathematical formulation of the proposed Mechanical Inverse method and apply it to the analysis of epithelial cell layers observed at the onset of ventral furrow formation in the {\it Drosophila} embryo and in the process of hair-cell determination in the avian cochlea. The analysis reveals mechanical anisotropy in the former process and mechanical heterogeneity, correlated with cell differentiation, in the latter process. The method opens a way for quantitative and detailed experimental tests of models of cell and tissue mechanics

Potentiality in Biology

We take the potentialities that are studied in the biological sciences (e.g., totipotency) to be an important subtype of biological dispositions. The goal of this paper is twofold: first, we want to provide a detailed understanding of what biological dispositions are. We claim that two features are essential for dispositions in biology: the importance of the manifestation process and the diversity of conditions that need to be satisfied for the disposition to be manifest. Second, we demonstrate that the concept of a disposition (or potentiality) is a very useful tool for the analysis of the explanatory practice in the biological sciences. On the one hand it allows an in-depth analysis of the nature and diversity of the conditions under which biological systems display specific behaviors. On the other hand the concept of a disposition may serve a unificatory role in the philosophy of the natural sciences since it captures not only the explanatory practice of biology, but of all natural sciences. Towards the end we will briefly come back to the notion of a potentiality in biology

Million Migrants study of healthcare and mortality outcomes in non-EU migrants and refugees to England: Analysis protocol for a linked population-based cohort study of 1.5 million migrants.

Background: In 2017, 15.6% of the people living in England were born abroad, yet we have a limited understanding of their use of health services and subsequent health conditions. This linked population-based cohort study aims to describe the hospital-based healthcare and mortality outcomes of 1.5 million non-European Union (EU) migrants and refugees in England. Methods and analysis: We will link four data sources: first, non-EU migrant tuberculosis pre-entry screening data; second, refugee pre-entry health assessment data; third, national hospital episode statistics; and fourth, Office of National Statistics death records. Using this linked dataset, we will then generate a population-based cohort to examine hospital-based events and mortality outcomes in England between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2017. We will compare outcomes across three groups in our analyses: 1) non-EU international migrants, 2) refugees, and 3) general population of England. Ethics and dissemination: We will obtain approval to use unconsented patient identifiable data from the Secretary of State for Health through the Confidentiality Advisory Group and the National Health Service Research Ethics Committee. After data linkage, we will destroy identifying data and undertake all analyses using the pseudonymised dataset. The results will provide policy makers and civil society with detailed information about the health needs of non-EU international migrants and refugees in England

The emerging structure of the Extended Evolutionary Synthesis: where does Evo-Devo fit in?

The Extended Evolutionary Synthesis (EES) debate is gaining ground in contemporary evolutionary biology. In parallel, a number of philosophical standpoints have emerged in an attempt to clarify what exactly is represented by the EES. For Massimo Pigliucci, we are in the wake of the newest instantiation of a persisting Kuhnian paradigm; in contrast, Telmo Pievani has contended that the transition to an EES could be best represented as a progressive reformation of a prior Lakatosian scientific research program, with the extension of its Neo-Darwinian core and the addition of a brand-new protective belt of assumptions and auxiliary hypotheses. Here, we argue that those philosophical vantage points are not the only ways to interpret what current proposals to ‘extend’ the Modern Synthesis-derived ‘standard evolutionary theory’ (SET) entail in terms of theoretical change in evolutionary biology. We specifically propose the image of the emergent EES as a vast network of models and interweaved representations that, instantiated in diverse practices, are connected and related in multiple ways. Under that assumption, the EES could be articulated around a paraconsistent network of evolutionary theories (including some elements of the SET), as well as models, practices and representation systems of contemporary evolutionary biology, with edges and nodes that change their position and centrality as a consequence of the co-construction and stabilization of facts and historical discussions revolving around the epistemic goals of this area of the life sciences. We then critically examine the purported structure of the EES—published by Laland and collaborators in 2015—in light of our own network-based proposal. Finally, we consider which epistemic units of Evo-Devo are present or still missing from the EES, in preparation for further analyses of the topic of explanatory integration in this conceptual framework